Outta Left Field

Friday, March 31, 2006

3 Forgotten Ballplayers

In these days of Baseball-reference.com, fantasy baseball leagues, and nationwide broadcasting of games over satellite and radio, it can be difficult to find players who people undervalue. The more normal problem is that players get overvalued because of one thing they do particularly well, or because of potential that they display. There are, however, quite a few players out there who are good to great, who, while they have gotten recognition in the past, are often forgotten.
People forget these guys for a variety of reasons: they are perceived as over-the-hill, they toil in relative anonymity in a smaller baseball market, or people harp on one bad stat of theirs without seeing their whole contribution to a team. There is no doubt these three guys have certainly been the subject of hype over the years, but as many of them are not taken at all in fantasy leagues, and are talked about by certain frothy-mouthed radio hosts as being too old or too injury prone, many of us have swallowed these opinions without a bit of fact-checking. So here is my list of 3 guys who are playing ball as well as they were during their primes, though nobody seems to notice:


3. Mike Cameron, CF (SDP)
A great case could be made that Mike is in fact still in his prime. At 33, he is still doing all the same things and putting up most of the same statistics he was putting up at ages 25 and 26. Those numbers are not that bad, and actually rather impressive for a center fielder. While we're on the subject let's not forget that Mike Cameron is no ordinary CF, but one of the very best in the game. Remember, when he was in the outfield last year with the vaunted Carlos Beltran? Well the best center fielder on the team was playing right field.
But that's not all that Cameron does well. Mike is good for 30 2Bs, 22 HRs, 80 RBIs, 29 SBs, and about 90 runs per season.
Sure a lot of people get on Cameron because of his low BA [.249 career], but he offsets that with an OBP [.340 career] a bit above the league average. His strikeouts are famous as well, meaning he does not make a ton of contact, but when he does, he makes it count. Make no mistake, Cameron is no Corey Patterson, he is more comparable to a Carlos Beltran-lite. Check the stats out for yourself. Meanwhile, when Carlos is available on the market, everybody goes after him, when Beltran was available the only thing Mets GM Omar Minaya got was Xavier Nady? Whoof! Cammy is underappreciated and undervalued.
* Note* Mike Cameron went down with an strained oblique on Friday and could start the season on the DL for the Padres. This marks only his second serious injury in his career, but follows just on the heals of his first, the result of a collision with Carlos Beltran last season.

2. Richie Sexson, 1B, LF (SEA)
Yeah, you might have to scratch your head a little, but you remember this guy. After all, though he is 31, he has been playing in the big leagues full-time for 7 seasons. What you might not recall is that even among 1Bs [a cornerstone offensive position] Sexson has stood out among most of his baseball peers during that time. However when it comes to mentioning top first basemen in the game hardly anyone brings up the name of Richie Sexson, and if they do they often get dismissed.
The reasons for this are two-fold. One is that after a brief stint with Cleveland at the start of his career Sexson has toiled in baseball anonymity in Milwaukee, Arizona, and now highly irrelevant Seattle. The small stage and dim spotlight on those cities hasn't given Sexson the notability of other first-basemen around the league. The second reason for people forgetting about him is the injury-shortened 2004 season where he had shoulder problems. Though it was bad, it was his only season since he first came up that he did not play at least 140 games and last year, his first season back, he played over 150.
But, do not forget Richie Sexson, and do not overlook his numbers. He has been remarkably consistent over his career to this point, and consistency is not his only asset. Sexson averages 39 HRs, 120 RBIs, 31 2bs, 160 hits, and nearly 100 runs over a season. He may strike out a lot, but he has a decent .270 average as well as admirable .352 OBP and .530 Slg. If we add to this his fairly strong defensive ability, it is clear we have a premier player on our hands who does not get premier status. If we look at the wonderful "most similar batters" comparisons baseball-reference provides us with we see this is no illusion. Among others at his age, Richie is compared to Mark McGwire, Willy McCovey, Cecil Fielder, Fred McGriff, Tino Martinez, and the pre-eating disorder Mo Vaughan. Richie is the real deal, and its about time we realized that.

1. Tom Glavine, SP , (NYM)
It seems strange to be writing about the number 2 pitcher on a contending team in the extremely competitive NL East as being underrated, but somehow Glavine has gotten to this point. Whether it is radio-talk show hosts, disgruntled Mets fans, or the majority of fantasy baseball owners, nobody is giving this guy his due. They all admit that he has built a Hall of Fame resume, but that in the past few years he has taken a down-turn. Few are able to cite any statistics that would support their claims.
Glavine has been and continues to still be one of the most durable, reliable, and consistent pitchers in the major leagues, as evidenced by his averaging 222 innings per season with 34 starts. However he has not only been a workhorse, eating up innings for the Mets and Braves throughout his career but he has also been a pitcher of rather high quality. He has averaged less than a hit allowed per inning, gives up a relatively low amount of long-balls, and doesn't walk many batters. He has coupled this with a very impressive 3.44 career ERA, well below the league average. This is all stuff we knew. What we might not have realized is that Glavine has continued to do all these things. In the last two season Glavine gave the Mets 423 innings, allowed only 32 HRs, walked 130 batters, and allowed 431 hits. All are right around his career averages. His combined ERA over the last two seasons has been 3.56. Slightly higher than his career average, but still far better than the league average of 4.23 over that same two year span.
What people miss about Glavine is that he doesn't win 18 to 20 games each season, and hasn't since he left the Braves. This is hardly his fault. The stats have been the same, what he hasn't gotten are the run-support and the fielding ability behind him that gave him those wins in Atlanta. The other stat people point to in order to show how Glavine is over the hill is his lowered Ks per season. Each of the last two seasons Glavine has had just over 100 Ks. Thats not bad but its not leading the league. But, while Glavine on two occassions ['91, '96] has cleared 180 Ks per season, he has never really been a strikeout pitcher. His average is 135 per season, and for much of his career Tom Glavine has hovered around 120 Ks pr season. The difference of 15 to 20 Ks is harldy enough to call an otherwise top-quality pitcher past-his-prime. Tom Glavine is one lucky season away from being a 17 or 18 game winner again. He only needs the run support the Mets are sure to give him this year alongside more balls hit to the left side of that infield.

These guys are all guys that will continue to remind us how good they are by putting up the same consistent and consistently impressive numbers they always have. I hope more people will eventually take notice of these quality athletes roaming around the major leagues.

Tomorrow we'll blog about Baseball on the radio. Happy Opening Day Weekend everybody!

3 Mythically Good Ballplayers

Folks, do not get confused. I don't want you to read this title and be set up for heartwarming, smile-inducing, and sentimental stories about great ballplayers of old. I am not telling stories about Babe Ruth's called home run, Jackie Robinson stealing home, or Reggie Jackson's October heroics. Those stories have been told too often, and are known so well, there's no need.

What I am writing about today is three players who we as fans, and who some GMs seem to think are good to great players. However, upon further investigation into their stats, we find out these players are really not all they're cracked up to be. Some of these guys might be good, but are simply thought of as great. Others might be terrible but thought of as good. I am not getting into projections about these guys here, so young guys who haven't reached their "potential" are going to be treated as ballplayers who just aren't that good. Of course all this can change with just one or two good seasons ahead, but as of right now, these guys don't meet their hype.

Without further ado here's our list of three players who are living high on reputations without producing.

3. Corey Patterson, CF
This one might not be a secret for many people out there anymore, but every so often you meet someone who believe's in this kid's ability and the hype that surrounded him coming into the league. If he had not been hyped so much by the Cubs at the start of his career, Corey would not be playing in the big leagues. What he has going for him is that he is young [26] and teams like the Cubs and Orioles seem to believe they can get something out of him playing Centerfield. But, consider this: 26 is not that young in baseball terms, and Corey barely has anything to show for his 4 1/2 years of service in the big leagues.
Corey's career numbers are staggeringly low. .252 BA/ 70 HR/ 231RBI/ 86SB over 2176 at-bats doesn't exactly inspire confidence. But when we add to that his horrendous .293 OBP and .414 Slugging we can begin to appreciate just how bad Corey really is. Then there is this stat: 552. Well that's the highest of his career numbers, care to guess what it is? If you guessed strikeouts you are correct. Corey Patterson is a K machine, who makes up for it with neither power, average, or really even speed [If we take 500 ABs to be approximately a full season's work load then Corey is averaging 20 steals per season, a decent performance but not enough to warrant him playing everyday, or at all].
There are probably still those doubters out there who say "but wait, remember that great season he had a couple years ago?" "He showed he is awesome then!" Did he though? Let's examine the numbers there: While Corey's 91 runs, 168 hits, 33 2bs, and 32 SBs are certainly noteworthy, they are hardly great. If you consider that in that same season he hit a barely satisfactory .266 and got on base at a terrible rate of .320, then it is clear that Patterson's "great season" is actually the only season he played like he even belongs in the major leagues, and even then, not as a particularly good player.
Salary: 3.8 million

2. Jose Reyes, SS
Now Jose Reyes is a player that the majority of the fans have not come to realize is a terrible player yet. He does have more going for him than Patterson, as he is younger [23], but is equally frustrating. Over three seasons Reyes has racked up enough at-bats [1190] to be counted as playing for a little over two full seasons, so he is not such a new-comer anymore. In that time he has produced exactly 179 runs, 14 HRs, 104 RBIs, 145 Ks, and a .277 BA. Now, these stats are not terrible by any means, but they are not great either. They are certainly not worth counting him among the top shortstops in the league. This becomes even more clear when we see that Jose's .303 OBP and .395 Slugging are nearly as bad as Patterson's numbers, and actually produce a lower OPS [On Base plus Slugging].
Of course there are a couple stats I was withholding from you here. Reyes's stolen base numbers are quite remarkable, with 60 last year in his first healthy season, and his hits and singles numbers are pretty good, while his doubles numbers are passable. Reyes is not a terrible player, but he sure isn't good either. Until he starts walking he is one batting slump away from being the Corey Patterson of the infield.
Salary: 639,000

1. Javier Vazquez, SP
Our first pitcher on the list might surprise people. Hey he shocked me when I was doing research for this post. The same Javier Vazquez who was the free agent darling two offseasons ago, and who was the frontline starter for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, is no ace at all. In fact, he is more like a number 4 starter. Let the stats speak for themselves. Through about 8 full seasons of work Javy has provided us baseball fans with 5 winning seasons, and always pitched a ton of innings for whatever team he was on- both admirable qualities for the portly pitcher from Ponce.
However over that same stretch of time Vazquez has gone 89-93. Now we all know pitching isn't all about W's and L's, there are other stats that matter more. Well, let's consider this then: during those long seasons where Javy has averaged 217 innings pitched , he has also averaged 219 hits - thats more than a hit per inning for all you math whizzes out there. Not great. He has also given opposing batters the privelege of hitting enough gopher balls off of him that he may soon have neck cramps from turning his neck to see which part of the stands they land in. Couple this knowledge with his career ERA that hovers around league average and things don't look so good for Javy.
The worst thing about Javy is that he actually appears to be trending downward. His ERA the past two seasons has been above league average while he has had more HRs and less strikeouts. This season may be the first in a while where he is being used in a proper rotation spot. Javy is the fifth starter for the World Champion Chicago White Sox - at least somebody realizes he isn't all that great.
Salary: 11 million

These guys have all got a lot more work to do to live up to their reputations and their salaries. Tomorrow we'll look at three players who are not perceived as good, or who are thought of as past their primes or over the hill, while they are putting up great numbers.

Keep reading, Cheers,
-Fran

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Rookie-Ball

While ballplayers are getting ready to make the trip north bronzed with their Florida/Arizona winter tans, and fresh and fit for the start of a new season, I sit here in the frozen north dreaming of baseball once again. In my first spring away from the game I love and am obsessed with I find a bit of separation anxiety. Here in Finland, I won't be able to take my usual spot in the upper deck of Yankee Stadium - just behind Jorge Posada's number 20, nor will I be able to smell the freshly poured beer, or hear the calls of the vendors calling for me to purchase their wares. No, here in Finland I will be sadly separate from so many parts of the ball park atmosphere I have enjoyed my whole life. Thankfully this does not mean I have to forget all about baseball altogether. The folks over at ESPN, CBSSportsline, CNNSI, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Hardball Times, and MLB (.coms all) have kept me informed on the daily events all winter and through spring training, and have provided me with wonderful commentary, insight, and inside information I could only dream of having.

However, I find this new perspective on baseball from the far northeastern regions of Europe provides me with great new ways to appreciate the game. I have new things I think about. I am able to concentrate more on the little things without all the atmospheric distractions of a ballpark. Subjects like sabermetrics, radio-broadcasting, baseball commentary, the role of managers and coaches, and the way front offices work have begun to fill out my knowledge and quench some of my thirst for the game I love so much. As such I need an outlet for my thoughts, and I believe, coming from the outside of baseball, American culture, and the media, I provide somewhat of a new look for other passionate fans of baseball who wish to add yet another blog or columnist to their list of daily-internet-visits.

So I am starting this blog coming outta left field. I have no inside information to give you; I can't tell you who will be traded in the coming days, nor if Corey Patterson will get on base ever without stealing the base and putting it under his bed. What I can do is provide a particularly insightful commentary from a fan in international waters. I will always look at things from the fans point of view, always try to look at the sport from a newer and different perspective, and generally try to have original and unique content. These are the only promises I will make.

One day I might comment on a particular play in a particular game. On another, I might comment on the state of the sport internationally. It'll be totally free-flowing, but always omething which is I hope different from what you can get from other sources [Though I thoroughly enjoy and am indebted to many of those sources].

So, welcome to OuttaLeftField. If you like what you read tell other baseball fans about it, if you don't I encourage you to keep reading and give the blog a chance. I am a staff of one, but I hope I can create something enjoyably entertaining and informative for my audience.

Come back daily for the latest Blogs!
-Fran